Strength progress projection

You have gone from 80 to 90 kg in ten weeks. If it carried on, where would you be? Here is the best case, clearly labelled.

Your details

Your lift with gains slowing as you go

97.8 kg

in 12 weeks, on the diminishing gains curve

In 4 weeks92.9 kg (straight line: 94 kg)
In 8 weeks95.5 kg (straight line: 98 kg)
In 12 weeks97.8 kg (straight line: 102 kg)
In 26 weeks104.3 kg (straight line: 116 kg)
In 52 weeks112.6 kg (straight line: 142 kg)
Gain over the next year22.6 kg, 25.1% of today's lift
Weekly gain now0.8 kg a week, slowing to 0.3 kg a week by this time next year (recent average 1 kg)
Training age usedabout 6 months (add yours), 0.5 years, first year
For comparisonLatella 2024: about 7.5 to 12.5% gained in the first year of competing, and about 20% after 10 years

Gains come fastest early on and then slow, so the curve sits below a straight line. Beginners often add weight weekly; after a few years a few kilos a year is good going. Deloads, sleep and food keep the curve climbing.

The working

80 to 90 kg in 10 weeks, 6 months in

A straight line says 1 kg a week for ever: 102 kg in 12 weeks. Real gains slow. With about 26 weeks of training behind you, 10 kg over the last 10 weeks fits a curve of lift = a + b × ln(weeks), with b = 10 ÷ ln(26 ÷ 16) = 20.6. Twelve weeks on that gives 90 + 20.6 × ln(38 ÷ 26) = 97.8 kg, and a year on about 112.6 kg, against 142 kg on the straight line.

Why it slows

Diminishing returns

Early strength gains are mostly your nervous system learning the lift, which happens fast. Later gains need muscle growth, which is slower. Latella and colleagues (2024) modelled years of powerlifting competition records and found lifts climb in a straight line against the logarithm of time: about 7.5 to 12.5% in the first year and about 20% after 10 years. That is the shape used here, fitted to your own two lifts and training age, so someone 5 years in sees a much flatter curve than someone 3 months in.

Making it last

Keep gains coming

Sleep 7 to 9 hours
Eat enough protein: about 1.2 to 1.6 g per kg of body weight is plenty for most
Plan easier weeks
Vary rep ranges every few months

Read with care

What this cannot tell you

The futureA curve fitted to two lifts is a rough guide; injuries, breaks and new plans all shift it.
PlateausA stall does not mean you have stopped improving.
Testing errorsA good or bad day at either end skews the rate.

Questions

Common questions

How fast can I gain strength?

Beginners can add weight weekly; experienced lifters gain far more slowly.

Why have my gains stopped?

Usually recovery, food, sleep or the same plan for too long.

Is it the same for every lift?

No. Lower body lifts usually climb faster.

Sources

Last checked 21 October 2026. Spotted something wrong? Tell us and we will fix it.

Before you push on

New to exercise, or got a heart, lung or joint condition? Have a word with your GP or practice nurse first. Stop and get help if you feel chest pain, faintness or unusual breathlessness, and call 999 if it is severe.