2K row prediction

Use a recent piece at another distance to set a sensible 2K rowing target.

Your details

From 5,000 m in 22:00

8:22

predicted 2,000 m

Test split2:12 per 500 m
2K split2:05 per 500 m
2K power178 W
5K22:00 (2:12 per 500 m)
6K26:40 (2:13 per 500 m)
2K goaladd one to see the split, watts and test time it needs

Paul’s Law fits balanced rowers. If you are more of a sprinter your 2K will come out slower than this; diesel engines usually beat it. Use it to set a target split for the first 500 m.

Chest pain, feeling faint or unusual breathlessness: stop, and call 999 if it does not pass.

The working

5,000 m in 22:00

That is a 2:12.0 split. Paul's Law takes off about 5 seconds per 500 m for each halving of distance; 2,000 m is 1.32 halvings shorter, so the 2K split is about 2:05.4 and the time 8:22, about 178 W.

Paul's Law

Double and add five

From	To	Split change
500 m	1,000 m	+5 seconds
1,000 m	2,000 m	+5 seconds
2,000 m	4,000 m	+5 seconds
2,500 m	5,000 m	+5 seconds

Racing the 2K

Classic plan

Fast start for 10 to 15 strokes, then settle
Hold target split through the middle 1,000
Lift the rate for the last 500
Do not go off far quicker than target

Goal and weight

What a target 2K needs

Add a 2K goal and the page gives the split and watts it takes, and what your test piece would need to be by Paul's Law. From 5,000 m in 22:00, a 7:20 goal means 1:50 per 500 m, about 263 watts, and a 5K test of about 19:26: a big jump that is better broken into steps.

Add your weight for Concept2's weight adjusted score, which multiplies your time by (weight in pounds divided by 270) to the power 0.222. It is a fair way to compare rowers of different sizes for boat selection; Concept2 does not allow adjusted scores in its rankings.

Read with care

What this cannot tell you

Sprinters and dieselsRowers strong at one end will not fit it.
DamperUse the same damper setting as your test.
Fitness changesAn old test gives an old prediction.

Questions

Common questions

What is Paul's Law in rowing?

A rule of thumb that your 500 m split slows by about 5 seconds each time the distance doubles.

How accurate is a 2K prediction?

A good target for balanced rowers, less so for sprinters or endurance specialists.

How do I convert split to watts?

Concept2 uses watts = 2.80 ÷ (seconds per metre) cubed.

Sources

Last checked 21 October 2026. Spotted something wrong? Tell us and we will fix it.

Before you push on

New to exercise, or got a heart, lung or joint condition? Have a word with your GP or practice nurse first. Stop and get help if you feel chest pain, faintness or unusual breathlessness, and call 999 if it is severe.