Mile time predictor

Use a recent race to predict your mile time, and what that means per lap of a track.

Your details

Distance in
Race distance
Race time
Your age (optional, for age grade)
Sex
Another recent race, distance (optional)
Its time (optional)

Predicted mile from 3.1 miles (5.0 km) in 25:00

7:31

all out, on fresh legs

  • Lap of a 400 m track1:52
  • Average race pace you ran8:03 a mile
  • Daniels VDOT method7:24 (same VDOT 38.3); a fair goal is between 7:24 and 7:31
  • Training paces per km (VDOT 38.3)easy 6:03 to 7:14; tempo 5:16 to 5:31; intervals 4:45 to 4:57
  • Age grade of that raceadd your age and sex to see it

Riegel's formula works best between similar distances. A mile is fast and short, so if you rarely run fast, expect to be a few seconds slower than this.

Chest pain, feeling faint or unusual breathlessness: stop, and call 999 if it does not pass.

The working

From a 25 minute 5K

Riegel: time = 25:00 × (1.61 ÷ 5)1.06 = 7:31 for the mile, about 1:52 a lap. You averaged 8:03 a mile in the 5K.

The formula

Riegel 1981

T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)1.06. It works best between similar distances, so a 5K predicts a mile better than a marathon does.

Run a mile

Where

  • A 400 m track: 4 laps plus 9 m
  • Many parkruns are near tracks with open sessions
  • Some clubs run mile races in summer

Two methods

Riegel and Daniels

Jack Daniels' VDOT tables give a second view: a 25 minute 5K is VDOT 38.3, and the mile with the same VDOT is 7:24, against 7:31 by Riegel, so a fair goal sits between the two. Add a second recent race at least 20% shorter or longer and we use your own exponent instead of 1.06: with a 53:00 10K the exponent is 1.084 and the Riegel mile becomes 7:19. A bigger exponent means you hold speed less well over longer races, so your mile is relatively stronger.

Read with care

What this cannot tell you

  • Speed workIf you rarely run fast, expect to be slower.
  • ConditionsWind and heat change it.
  • Under a mileDo not predict up from very short sprints.

Questions

Common questions

How do I predict my mile time?

Use a recent race and Riegel's formula.

What is a good mile time?

Under 10 minutes is a solid recreational time; under 7 is quick.

How many laps is a mile?

Just over 4 laps of a 400 m track.

Sources

Last checked 21 October 2026. Spotted something wrong? Tell us and we will fix it.

Before you push on

New to exercise, or got a heart, lung or joint condition? Have a word with your GP or practice nurse first. Stop and get help if you feel chest pain, faintness or unusual breathlessness, and call 999 if it is severe.

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